KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: What Do We Know About Those Who Want to “Wait and See” Before Getting a COVID-19 Vaccine?

The KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor is an ongoing research project tracking the public’s attitudes and experiences with COVID-19 vaccinations. Using a combination of surveys and qualitative research, this project tracks the dynamic nature of public opinion as vaccine development and distribution unfold, including vaccine confidence and hesitancy, trusted messengers and messages, as well as the public’s experiences with vaccination.

Introduction

The latest KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor reports that 31% of the public say that when an FDA-approved vaccine for COVID-19 is available to them for free, they will “wait until it has been available for a while to see how it is working for other people” before getting vaccinated themselves. This “wait and see” group is an important target for outreach and messaging, since they express some hesitancy about getting vaccinated, but will likely be much easier to convert from vaccine-hesitant to vaccine-acceptant than those who say they will “definitely not” get the vaccine or will get it “only if required” to do so. As reported in January, those in the “wait and see” category express high levels of concern about the safety and long-term effects of COVID-19 vaccines as well as a desire for more information about vaccine side effects and effectiveness. Most adults in this group (60%) do not yet know someone who’s been vaccinated for COVID-19, presenting an opportunity for them to learn more as more of their friends and family members get vaccinated.

This analysis examines the “wait and see” group in more detail, with a focus on their concerns about being vaccinated, the messages that resonate most, and the messengers they are likely to turn to for more information about COVID-19 vaccination. In particular, it looks at how attitudes within this group differ by partisanship and race/ethnicity, which should be helpful for those looking to target vaccine outreach and communication to groups like Republicans, Black adults, and Hispanic adults.

Profile Of The “Wait And See” Group

Demographically, those who want to “wait and see” are younger than other groups (29% are under age 30 and just 15% are ages 65 and over). They are a racially diverse group, with half (51%) identifying as White, 16% Black, and 19% Hispanic. They are also a politically diverse group; 42% identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, 36% identify as Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, and 14% are independents who don’t lean either way.

Figure 1: Compared To Those Eager To Get COVID-19 Vaccine, “Wait And See” Group Is Younger, More Racially And Politically Diverse

This group also holds a range of attitudes and beliefs when it comes to COVID-19 and vaccinations. About two-thirds (64%) say they are very or somewhat worried that they or a family member will get sick from the coronavirus (about the same share as among the public overall, but lower than the 79% among those who want the vaccine “as soon as possible”). Over half (54%) of those who want to wait and see say that getting vaccinated against COVID-19 is a personal choice, higher than the 21% who say so among the most vaccine-eager group, and compared to 44% who say so among the public overall.

Figure 2: Most Who Want To “Wait And See” Worry About Getting Sick; A Majority See Vaccination As A Personal Choice

Partisan Differences Within The “Wait And See” Group

Previous Vaccine Monitor reports have shown that Republicans are more likely than Democrats and independents to say they will “definitely not” get vaccinated for COVID-19. This new analysis reveals that even among those who want to “wait and see,” there are differences between Republicans and Democrats in their attitudes and concerns related to the vaccines, as well as the messages they say are likely to motivate them and the messengers they’re likely to turn to. (For this analysis, those who identify as political independents but say the lean toward either the Democratic or Republican party are included with partisans.)

Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have vastly different attitudes toward the pandemic overall compared to Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, even within the “wait and see” group. For example, about half (51%) of Republican leaners in this group say the seriousness of coronavirus is “generally exaggerated” in the news, compared to just 17% of Democratic leaners. Republicans are also significantly less likely than Democrats in this category to say they are worried that they or someone in their family might get sick from the coronavirus (51% vs. 76%). Further, about two-thirds (67%) of Republican leaners in the “wait and see” category believe that getting vaccinated for COVID-19 is a personal choice, while most Democratic leaners in this category (52%) say it’s part of everyone’s responsibility to protect the health of others.

Within the “wait and see” group, levels of concern about the COVID-19 vaccines’ safety and effectiveness are similar across partisans. However, those who identify or lean Republican are much less likely than those who identify or lean Democrat to say that various messages and information would increase their likelihood of getting vaccinated for COVID-19. For example, among those who want to wait and see how the vaccine is working, half of Republicans say they would be more likely to get vaccinated if they heard that the vaccine will help protect them from getting sick from COVID-19, compared with three-quarters (76%) of Democrats. Similarly, Republicans in this category are half as likely as Democrats to say that hearing a health care provider they trust has gotten vaccinated would increase their likelihood of getting the vaccine (25% vs. 50%).

Conversely, a smaller share of Republican leaners compared with Democratic leaners within the “wait and see” group say that hearing that some people experience short-term side effects like pain or fever from the COVID-19 vaccine would make them less likely to get vaccinated (38% vs. 56%).

Those who want to wait and see how the COVID-19 vaccine works for others also report a somewhat different set of trusted sources for vaccine information depending on their partisan leanings. While health care providers are the source that people across partisan affiliations say they are most likely to turn to when making decisions about whether to get vaccinated, significant differences exist when it comes to some other sources. Specifically, among the “wait and see” group, those who identify as Republicans or lean that way are much less likely than those who identify or lean Democrat to say they are likely to turn to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (52% vs. 79%) or their state or local health department (45% vs. 73%) when making vaccine-related decisions.

Figure 3: “Wait And See” Republicans Less Likely To Turn To CDC, Health Departments When Making COVID-19 Vaccine Decisions

Differences By Race And Ethnicity Within The “Wait And See” Group

The KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor has previously reported that Black and Hispanic adults are among those most likely to say they want to “wait and see” how the vaccine is working for others before getting vaccinated themselves. This analysis further reveals that Black and Hispanic adults who feel this way express somewhat different attitudes and concerns about COVID-19 vaccinations compared to their White counterparts in the “wait and see” group.

Previous KFF research has found that Black and Hispanic adults overall are less likely to trust doctors, hospitals, and the health care system compared to White adults, and that for Black adults, lower levels of trust are associated with lower levels of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance. This new COVID-19 Monitor analysis finds that Black adults in the “wait and see” category are also less trusting of the health care system in general; a majority (57%) say they trust the health care system just “some of the time” or “almost none of the time” to do what is right for them and their community, compared to 43% of White adults in this category. Hispanic adults who want to “wait and see” are more divided, with about half saying they trust the health care system “almost all” or “most” of the time (51%) and the other half saying they trust it just “some” or “almost none” of the time (49%).

Reflecting the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on people of color in the United States, concern about getting sick from the virus is high among Black and Hispanic adults in the “wait and see” group, with about three-quarters saying they are “very” or “somewhat” worried that they or someone in their family will get sick from coronavirus. In fact, Hispanic adults are more than twice as likely as White adults in this group to say they are “very worried” about this possibility (43% vs. 19%).

In addition to this heightened level of personal concern, more than four in ten Black adults (43%) and Hispanic adults (45%) in the “wait and see” group view getting vaccinated against COVID-19 as part of everyone’s responsibility to protect the health of others, compared to a clear majority (61%) of White adults in this group who say getting vaccinated is a “personal choice.”

Figure 4: “Wait And See” Black And Hispanic Adults More Likely To Worry About Illness; Many View Vaccination As Collective Responsibility

While Black and Hispanic adults in the “wait and see” group express higher levels of concern about getting sick from the coronavirus, they also express higher levels of concerns related to the vaccine. For example, vaccine-hesitant Black and Hispanic adults are more likely than hesitant White adults to say they are “very concerned” that they might experience serious side effects from the vaccine (55%, 47%, and 34%, respectively). Black and Hispanic adults in this group are also significantly more likely than their White counterparts to say they’re “very concerned” that the vaccines are not as safe or not as effective as they are said to be. Notably, about six in ten Hispanic adults (61%) and Black adults (59%) in the “wait and see” group say they are at least somewhat concerned that they may get COVID-19 from the vaccine (including about three in ten in each group who say they are “very” concerned), much higher than among their White counterparts.

Figure 5: “Wait And See” Black And Hispanic Adults Express More Concerns About COVID-19 Vaccines Than White Counterparts

Among those in the “wait and see” category, Black adults are somewhat more responsive than White adults to certain pro-vaccine messages and information – including messages that vaccination is the best way for things to return to normal, to get the economy back open, and that millions have already safely been vaccinated. However, Black adults are also more likely than White adults to say that hearing about side effects would make them less likely to get vaccinated.

Similarly, Hispanic adults are more responsive than White adults in the “wait and see” category towards messaging that encourage vaccinations. However, they are also more likely than their White counterparts to say that hearing about side effects and needing to get two doses of the vaccine would make them less likely to get vaccinated.

Despite these differences, it’s worth noting that the messages that resonate most with Black and Hispanic adults who are hesitant to get a COVID-19 vaccine are the same ones that appear to be most effective with the public overall – messages that emphasize that the vaccine is highly effective, offers protection from illness, and provides the quickest way for life to return to normal.

Across racial and ethnic groups, those in the “wait and see” category are most likely to say they will turn to a doctor, nurse or other health care provider for information when deciding whether to get vaccinated for COVID-19. In fact, one-third of Black adults in this group say they have already asked a doctor or other health care professional for information about the vaccine, somewhat higher than among vaccine-hesitant White adults (18%). Hispanic adults in this group (13%) are significantly less likely than their Black counterparts to say they’ve reached out to a health care provider for more information about the vaccine. This may reflect the fact that Hispanics in the U.S. overall have lower rates of health insurance coverage and face greater barriers to accessing health care compared to other groups.

Looking at potential sources of information beyond health care providers, both Black and Hispanic adults are more likely than White adults in the “wait and see” group to say they are at least somewhat likely to turn to the CDC, their state or local public health department, or a religious leader for vaccine information. While health care workers will undoubtedly be a key source of information for those who express some hesitancy towards the COVID-19 vaccine, the CDC, public health departments, and religious leaders are also positioned to be effective messengers in promoting vaccination among Black and Hispanic communities.