The lifting of all legal limits on social contact in England next month is “very much in the balance”, one of the government’s leading coronavirus advisers has said, amid “hints” that vaccines may be less effective at slowing the new fast-spreading variant of Covid-19.
Prof Neil Ferguson, a member of the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling Group (SPI-M), said early data suggested vaccines protected against serious illness but may be less effective at stopping transmission of the variant first detected in India.
He said there was a “glimmer of hope” that the B.1.617.2 variant may be less transmissible than first feared but that it would take time to be sure. Asked whether it was realistic for England to emerge fully from lockdown on 21 June, Ferguson said: “I think that’s being actively considered. I think it’s very much in the balance. The data collected in the next two to three weeks will determine that.
The prime minister said on Wednesday that there was “increasing confidence” vaccines were effective against the variant.
Johnson’s official spokesman, asked later what the evidence was for that, said the prime minister was looking at published data on case rates and hospitalisations. “What we’re largely pointing to is the ongoing data we’re seeing mainly from the outbreak areas in places like Bolton, which are currently not showing significant increases: but we want to keep a very close eye on those over the coming days.”
Ministers are expected to announce in the coming days whether the UK’s route out of lockdown will be delayed due to a sharp rise in cases in areas such as Bolton, Blackburn with Darwen and Bedford. Infections in some parts of the country have jumped tenfold in a week, fuelled by the more transmissible B.1.617.2 variant.
Boris Johnson faced questions from Labour leader Keir Starmer on Wednesday about the government’s borders policy.
The government has struggled to explain why India was not added to the travel “red list” before 23 April, allowing the variant to be imported into the UK where it is being spread among mostly young people in densely populated communities. Bolton and Blackburn with Darwen account for one in five of all 2,323 cases of the variant, according to the latest data given on Monday.
Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, said while the variant had a “significant growth advantage” over winter’s variant first found in Kent, “the magnitude of that advantage seems to have dropped a little bit with the most recent data”.
The government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said last week there was a “realistic possibility” – equivalent to a 50/50 likelihood – that B.1.617.2 was as much as 50% more transmissible than the Kent variant. If that was the case, it warned, hospitalisations could surpass the peak of the second wave in January.
Timeline
How England’s Covid lockdown is being lifted
Step 1, part 1
In effect from 8 March, all pupils and college students returned fully. Care home residents could receive one regular, named visitor.
Step 1, part 2
In effect from 29 March, outdoor gatherings allowed of up to six people, or two households if this is larger, not just in parks but also gardens.
Outdoor sport for children and adults allowed.
The official stay at home order ended, but people encouraged to stay local.
People still asked to work from home where possible, with no overseas travel allowed beyond the current small number of exceptions.
Step 2
In effect from 12 April, non-essential retail, hair and nail salons, and some public buildings such as libraries and commercial art galleries reopened. Most outdoor venues can reopen, including pubs and restaurants, but only for outdoor tables and beer gardens. Customers will have to be seated but there will be no need to have a meal with alcohol.
Also reopen are settings such as zoos and theme parks. However, social contact rules still apply here, so no indoor mixing between households and limits on outdoor mixing.
Indoor leisure facilities such as gyms and pools can also open, but again people can only go alone or with their own household.
Reopening of holiday lets with no shared facilities is also allowed, but only for one household.
Funerals can have up to 30 attendees, while weddings, receptions and wakes can have 15.
Step 3
From 17 May people can be able to meet indoors in groups of up to six or as two households, or outdoors in groups of up to 30 people. People can also choose whether to socially distance with close family and friends, meaning that they can sit close together and hug. In care homes, residents can have up to five named visitors and be entitled to make low risk visits out of the home.
People can meet in private homes, or in pubs, bars and restaurants, which will all be able to reopen indoors. Weddings, receptions and other life events can take place with up to 30 people. The cap on numbers attending funerals will depend on the size of the venue.
Most forms of indoor entertainment where social distancing is possible will also be able to resume, including cinemas, museums and children’s play areas. Theatres, concert halls, conference centres and sports stadia will have capacity limits in place.
Organised adult sport and exercise classes can resume indoors and saunas and steam rooms will reopen. Hotels, hostels and B&Bs in the UK will allow overnight stays in groups of up to six people or two households.
People will also be able to travel to a small number of countries on the green list and will not have to quarantine on return.
Pupils will no longer be expected to wear face coverings in classrooms or in communal areas in secondary schools and colleges as a result of decreasing infection rates. Twice weekly home testing will remain in place. School trips with overnight stays will also now be possible.
Step 4
No earlier than 21 June, all legal limits will be removed on mixing, and the last sectors to remain closed, such as nightclubs, will reopen. Large events can take place. However, the prime minister has said that the rise of the B.1.617.2 variant of coronavirus first detected in India may threaten this date.
Peter Walker Political correspondent and Rachel Hall
Ferguson told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme there was a “good deal of confidence” that vaccines protect against severe Covid- disease and that the effect of the India variant would be “fairly marginal in terms of severe disease”.
However, he added there were “some hints” in the early data that vaccines may be less effective at preventing spread of B.1.617.2: “The thing we’re slightly concerned about is whether there’s an impact on the ability of vaccines to prevent infection or mild disease and therefore prevent transmission in the community.
“There are some hints – and it’s not vaccine-specific at the moment – there are some hints in the data of reduced vaccine efficacy against infection against transmission.
“But we really have to wait until more data is gathered to be definitive about that but of course it’s a concern because if we don’t have the same level of action of vaccine blocking transmission it’s another way for the virus to amplify itself in the community.”
Ministers have suggested local lockdowns could be imposed on hotspot areas to allow the rest of the country to enjoy a return of freedoms from 21 June – a proposal that would be fiercely opposed, even by the government’s fellow Conservative MPs.
Ferguson said he did not believe locking down a particular borough, such as Bolton, would be effective on a wider scale. He said: “Locking down hotspot areas may work in those areas but just allows the rest of the country to reach a higher infection level and we know what the consequences of that were last year”.
David Greenhalgh, the Conservative leader of Bolton council, said on Wednesday there was a “danger of unrest” if the Greater Manchester town was locked down. He is understood to have made this warning in a call with Matt Hancock, the health secretary, last Friday.
Greenhalgh told the Today programme: “The people of Bolton have a great spirit and they come together when times are difficult, but this would be a very, very difficult situation to manage, I believe, if we went into a lockdown that we have experience of, personally experienced, in a town, that did not work.”
This content first appear on the guardian